Geneva, 11.1.2010. During our consulting activities at MinimaRisk we have frequently being asked if it is possible to calculate accurately the likelihood of disasters, therefore to develop a proactive early warning signal that would at some degree forecast an imminent catastrophic event. Unfortunately the reality proves us that forecasting accurately a disaster can’t exist. For example let assign a probability of “p< 1.0″ to a particular event occuring in the next 12 months. If it happens, we might be prone to say “p” should have been 1.0 (we had forecasted < 1.0). If the disaster doesn’t happen we might say “p” should have been 0.0. However it is impossible to have such a foresight, thereforewe look to ways to deal with uncertainty. Probability theory provide mathematically tractable ways of treating uncertainty as long as we can assign probabilities to possible and concrete events. Probability is fine if you work with tossing coins or rolling roulette wheels. It become completely herratic if you try to forecast unique unpredictable events such a natural disasters.